Mission (Im)possible: Renewing Dialogue on European Security

By Fred Tanner and Juraj Nosal

The security situation in Europe is more dangerous and a concerted diplomatic process to address it more needed than ever: these were the conclusions of discussions organized during 2016 at the initiative of members of the Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project and presented at a side event of the Ministerial Council in Hamburg.

The depth of the rifts that are dividing OSCE participating States and threatening the project for a co-operative security regime in Europe became evident a year ago when the Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project, initiated by the Swiss OSCE Chairmanship in 2014 to find a way out of the impasse, presented its final report at the Ministerial Council in Belgrade. The group of leading personalities from across the OSCE region had not been able to agree on a common narrative explaining the breakdown of trust. Instead, it presented three competing narratives – from the West, from Moscow and from the “states in between” – of the events in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

The Panel was unanimous, however, in seeing the security situation in Europe as the most dangerous in decades and in calling for a robust political and diplomatic process, concluding with a summit meeting, to re-establish European security on a co-operative basis.

That diagnosis has now been reconfirmed in a new report that presents the results of outreach events initiated by various members of the Panel throughout 2016 to take the discussion further – in Washington, Brussels, London, Berlin, Rome, Athens and Kyiv as well as on the margins of multilateral conferences, including the Munich Security Conference, the Warsaw Security Forum, the Riga Conference and the Globsec Bratislava Security Forum.

The discussions reflected a security situation in Europe that has become even more unstable and unpredictable than a year ago, marked by continuing shelling in eastern Ukraine despite a negotiated cease-fire, further deterioration of Russian-Western relations, stalled arms control talks, signs that existing agreements might unravel and a continuing high number of hazardous military incidents, particularly between Russia and NATO member states.

Given this toxic environment, numerous participants in these outreach discussions called for more extensive use of the OSCE as a platform for inclusive security dialogue, de-escalation and détentedétente
The relaxation of strained relations, especially political ones.. Many echoed the Panel’s call for a structured political dialogue on European security under the OSCE umbrella. These are some of the essential topics on which such a process should focus, as highlighted in the report:

“States in-between”: states that became independent with the dissolution of the Soviet Union but still have an undefined security status were dubbed “states in-between” in the Panel’s final report. Their external military and economic relations are contested and they subscribe neither to the “Western” nor to the “Eastern” narrative on European security. This territorial uncertainty is a source of geopolitical instability in Europe. The security status of the “states in-between” and, more broadly, security regimes and guarantees with respect to these states, need to be addressed.

Protracted conflicts: renewed efforts should be made to resolve protracted conflicts in the OSCE area and existing negotiation formats should be used to build confidence, not just between the parties to the conflict.

Arms control: it is necessary to re-launch a dialogue on conventional arms control and confidence- and security-building measures.

Risk reduction: the OSCE needs to strengthen risk reduction measures to improve prevention and crisis management of military incidents and accidents – especially since the NATO-Russia Council has been unable to address this matter so far.

Connectivity: economic connectivity is another area that deserves more attention as it has potential to deescalate tensions, promote co-operation and engage the business community and civil society.

Empowering the OSCE: many participants at the Panel’s outreach events called for empowering the OSCE as the main institution for co-operative security and supported the recommendations of the Panel’s interim report, particularly those regarding legal personality and increased autonomy and capacities in conflict prevention and crisis management.

While it is clear that discussions on these topics will be extremely difficult and any such process might resemble a “mission impossible”, the gravity of the current security situation in Europe makes such efforts more urgently needed than ever. The OSCE has been created exactly for this purpose and we should use it before mutual mistrust and confrontation reach levels that will make any negotiations unfeasible.

As the 2016 OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in his call for a re-launch of discussions on arms control published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in August, “it would be irresponsible not to try”. The OSCE Ministerial Council in Hamburg brought some positive results, particularly a declaration on reinvigorating conventional arms control and CSBMsCSBMs
Confidence- and security-building measures in Europe, which also welcomed the launching of a structured dialogue on current and future challenges and risks to security in the OSCE area. It is now up to the Austrian OSCE Chairmanship to figure out how to initiate and steer this process.

Fred Tanner is Senior Adviser and Juraj Nosal is Project Assistant at the OSCE Secretariat in Vienna.

The Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security

The Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project was mandated by the 2015 OSCE Troika (Switzerland, Serbia, Germany) to prepare the basis for an inclusive and constructive security dialogue in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian regions and provide advice on how to prevent further escalation between Russia and the West, re-build trust and return to co-operation in Europe. The Panel did not attempt to prescribe solutions to the current problems of European security as these can only be negotiated by the states themselves if they are to be sustainable.  Instead, it provided a diagnosis of the current crisis and suggested how answers could be found. For more information, visit www.osce.org/networks/pep .

Read more:

Renewing Dialogue on European Security: a Way Forward: Report on outreach events of the Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project in 2016: //www.osce.org/networks/291001

Back to Diplomacy: Final Report and Recommendations of the Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project //www.osce.org/networks/205846

Lessons learned for the OSCE from its engagement in Ukraine: Interim Report and Recommendations of the Panel of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project //www.osce.org/networks/164561