Op-ed by OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger with kommersant
Credits to 'kommersant' for the article: www.kommersant.ru
Co-operation, not confrontation
We are living dangerous times. The lines between war and peace have become blurred. The breakdown of a rules-based system is compounded by the weaponization of almost everything: trade; migration; information; cyber.
Furthermore, adversaries often operate in the shadows: in unrecognized regions; in cyber space; or as criminal or terrorist groups. More disturbing, sometimes these actors have close links to intelligence or military forces.
It can be hard to know what is true and what is not. Indeed, creating such fog is part of hybrid warfare.
The result of all of this is a high degree of unpredictability and instability, characterized by a vicious circle where mistrust breeds unilateralism, and unilateralism deepens mistrust.
If we continue down this road, the situation will end badly – for everyone. We are standing on the brink. We need to step back.
How do we do this?
In an increasingly inter-connected world, states should realize the self-interest (as well as the collective interest) of working together. Relations must be rooted in the basic principles that have been the bedrock of European security since 1975, namely those of the Helsinki Final Act.
Achieving this goal will require a narrative of change, leadership, a more constructive tone on all sides, and greater empathy for each other’s security perceptions. And it will take time.
But some things cannot wait. Urgent steps are needed to reduce tensions, and to prevent incidents or accidents from spiraling out of control.
Aggressive force postures, snap exercises close to borders, and belligerent rhetoric are sending dangerous signals. In a nuclear age, the risks are unthinkable. States – starting with their leaders – need to recommit to abstaining from the threat and use of force.
More dialogue is essential. Strange as it may seem, today there is less military to military dialogue than during the Cold War. There is also insufficient interaction between the diplomatic and military communities. How can we understand each other if we are not listening? How can confidence be built if there is no contact?
The Structured Dialogue within the OSCE is a good place to start. This interstate process was launched at the Hamburg Ministerial Council in December 2016. An important part of its success is due to the active participation of senior officials from defence and foreign ministries.
But talking is not enough. We need to get back to basics. There must be practical, verifiable steps to display willingness to co-operate.
Recognizing our common challenges
Issues like violent extremism, terrorism, illicit trafficking of small arms and light weapons, cyber threats, and large flows of refugees and migrants are challenges common to all OSCE participating States and can only be tackled together. This is another reason why Russia and the West need to overcome their differences.
More generally, we need to replace the dangerous downward spiral of tit-for-tat reprisals with small, reciprocal steps in areas of mutual interest that can gradually restore constructive communication, predictability, and trust.
One of these “islands” of converging interests is the threat of interstate cyber conflicts. All the OSCE’s 57 participating States have agreed to a set of confidence-building measures designed to reduce the risk of such conflicts.
Another potential “island” are the common efforts to resolve protracted conflicts in the OSCE area. In some cases, the existing mediation formats can act as confidence-building measures in themselves. The very countries that are quarrelling in neighboring Ukraine are working together constructively as mediators in the Transdniestrian settlement process to make life better for people living on both sides of the Dniestr river.
Indivisible security
The past twenty years have shown what happens when co-operation breaks down. If evidence were needed, it shows that our security is truly indivisible. Therefore, instead of going down a dead-end path of confrontation, all states should seek mutually beneficial co-operation.
As a global power in a globalized world, Russia has a major stake and a national interest in restoring a properly functioning rules-based international system. It should have a vested interest in being part of the European security architecture. And that architecture can only be robust if Russia is part of it.
There is an urgent need to de-escalate tensions, strengthen compliance with a clear and shared set of rules, engage in dialogue to overcome differences, and take joint action against common threats and challenges. The OSCE can provide the forum, rules, and tools to do that. But it is up to states to use its tools and take a step towards peace.